14.6.05

數交銀

交通銀行昨天開始招股。

  無論你有否興趣入紙申請,又或者有否時間心機研究這本招股書,都應該拿一本或上網看看,因為這是第一份綜合文件,講解國內銀行業的情況。中英兼備,花上各銀行家律師無數心神,旁徵博引,反覆核對的這本心血結晶,讓你免費任攞,你還要辜負人家一番美意?

  而這本招股書,相信全是交通銀行唯一一次向大家坦白交代自己所有不足之處。在將來什麽年報通函,你只會看見美麗前景,一切壞事是經濟環境所致,與管理層無關。錯過這本招股書,你永遠只能偏聽。

  可能是上次領匯所受的教訓實在太大,高盛與滙豐兩家保薦人坦白得有點兒過份,除非你是文盲,稍有閱讀能力的人,看過幾十頁招股書後,得出的結論都應該是「買唔過」。但弔詭的是,交通銀行必定超額認購,上市成功。再一次證明,招股書只不過為應酬交易所。

  有什麽坦白得可怕之處?隨處皆是。那些灰底四方框模仿煙包上「吸煙足以致命」這些警告字句的disclaimer,其實意思是「就算以下所寫的全部是錯,都與我無關,買者自負」。

  例如指明不良貸款的水平,中國官方可能隱惡揚善;又註明國內銀行,比較閣下日常接觸其他國家銀行所受的監管可能令你出人意表。這類對保薦人穩陣的字句,代價是犧牲了招股書的可信性,是領匯的後遺症。

  究竟銀行還講了自己什麽壞話?不良貸款所有人都講,不贅。其餘大部分是自首,認自己還是一間簡單未夠班的銀行,無論在利息收入、貸款組合、內部運作、風險管理員工素質等。總之一句,未執笠算好彩。反過來看,現在是谷底,將來有好無壞。現在入股,此其時也。

   如此誠實兼肯改過自新的銀行,唯一吸引力是滙控持有股份。過往滙控那種小注怡情,潛入對方摸熟底蘊,再大舉出擊的策略太深入民心。交通銀行位於四大銀行 之後,將來如果放寬外資持股,按道理四大銀行是最後堡壘,要力保血統純淨,但交通銀行這類股份制商業銀行,隨時可以讓外國人加碼,變成首批銀行混血兒。這 班半唐番,正是投資銀行的台柱,是賺大錢的基地。

   所以滙控入股交通銀行高明,有大行的規模,卻沒四大的包袱。但問題是中國人都並非善男信女,找你入股只不過是方便上市。你要潛入總部企圖將它變成米特蘭 二號?一開口聽你的口音已經知道是外人。要人家當你是自己人?怕且是下一代的事。招股書內有整整十二版與滙控這戰略投資者的合作安排細節,看過後你會知道 雙方還是止乎禮,離混血兒出世還遠。

  整份招股書的內容你都有理由懷疑其準確性,唯獨有一項相信真實無誤─集資金額全數是用作增強資本。難道還可以有其他用途?

7 comments:

Villeo said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Anonymous said...

今次其實係「隔山打牛」,係針對「隔鄰」孔少林君的:
1.有良好願望、「唔衰得」係無用的。回歸後的香港就是最好例子;
2.滙控的海外投資並非「未衰過」,只不過佢財力雄厚,可以「閒閒地守幾年」,這是小投資者望塵莫及的;
3.招股價不算合理--交銀豈能與本港中型銀行估值相比。

Anonymous said...

1)19.9%係避免將交通盈虧入賬,即係交通賺蝕根本唔會影響匯豐盤數
2)就算匯豐再入股都冇話幾錢,$1.5唔得咩?

Anonymous said...

點解會得兩句咁少既?
"自研難"呢篇亦係一樣...

Anonymous said...

the prospectus has to present both pros & cons of a co. showing the risk factors is a must.

this is similar as what we had on Chartered Semiconductor IPO issue in Singapore few years ago... nobody wanted it on IPO, but stock price went up 50% in 1 month after listing.

sentiment may not be positive for those trying to get some quick buck.

HSBC has its own merits for its holdings of 19.9% stake.. and retail shouldnt take it as a guide.

BoCom pricing is moderate, upside could be limited in near term, fundamental is there and the safest way is to wait for any bad news to buy... remember the case of BOCHK?

Anonymous said...

the prospectus has to present both pros & cons of a co. showing the risk factors is a must.

this is similar as what we had on Chartered Semiconductor IPO issue in Singapore few years ago... nobody wanted it on IPO, but stock price went up 50% in 1 month after listing.

sentiment may not be positive for those trying to get some quick buck.

HSBC has its own merits for its holdings of 19.9% stake.. and retail shouldnt take it as a guide.

BoCom pricing is moderate, upside could be limited in near term, fundamental is there and the safest way is to wait for any bad news to buy... remember the case of BOCHK?

Anonymous said...

Small investors shouldn't have taken HSBC's purchase of 19.9% in the subject bank as a sign of comfort because there could be a huge difference in the terms of purchase between them. For instance, corporation as big and influential as HSBC may have the following terms to make its purchase justifiable:
1. Discount in price/share
2. Buy back guarantee
3. Bad debt ceiling guarantee
4. Options to purchase more at a certain price/share...etc