10.7.06

飛機交易之最後勝利

在整單飛機交易中,只有中信泰富(267)純賣貨而沒有買貨。說它是交易之中賺得最多的一間公司,絕對冇錯。不過,究竟賺幾多?

  賣港龍給國泰(293),先收近三億現金;賣國泰股票給國航(753),收近五十億現金;國泰派發特別股息之後,又收多二億。前前後後,有五十五億落袋。

  2005年底中信泰富有二百一十億淨負債,有這五十五億,gearing由45%跌到32%。若果連同年初中信泰富六十二億賣又一城,今年已經賣貨套現近百二億。

  中信泰富賣港龍賺多少?二十億。是2005年全年純利的一半。換言之,今年中信泰富的盈利有保證。

  不過,賣走港龍,減持國泰,對中信泰富的賺錢能力有影響。2005年有十億是由飛機生意貢獻,是全年盈利四分之一;減持國泰之後,只剩17.5%股份。假若未有學國航用equity method,盈利即時失去一大截。換着我是Vernon,好歹都要爭取與國航同等待遇。

  中信泰富完成交易之後,會漸漸變身鋼鐵及國內地產公司。管理層毫不諱言,這是未來發展方向。有理由相信,賣港龍減持國泰都是策略之一,進一步將香港值錢的資產脫手套現,轉戰內地。當大陸地產生意站穩陣腳,手上的17.5%國泰還可以再賣。

  飛機交易之中,中信泰富即賺;國泰長遠有賺;國航都有賺,不過要私有化中航興業(1110),就令自己賺得未夠盡興;而中航興業,交易之中大賺,不過港龍脫手後,前景堪虞,私有化對小股東冇壞,只是價錢未夠吸引。

  一張長枱,幾間上市公司,你眼望我眼,各懷心事,各有各賺。最開心的,還有各間投資銀行,至少有六間有份參與其事。

5 comments:

K.S.Li said...

Mr Fong,

you will break down how much richard liar stole from the shareholders over the past few years, won't you =)

Anonymous said...

I am just going to ask you to do the same thing .. but Ka Shing Li beat me to the punch.

Do provide some analysis on this deal. I don't have enough background and financial analysis to do it on my own.

Menger Subscribes

Anonymous said...

I am just going to ask you to do the same thing .. but Ka Shing Li beat me to the punch.

Do provide some analysis on this deal. I don't have enough background and financial analysis to do it on my own.

Menger Subscribes

Anonymous said...

Hey, what happened, how come all my comments are doubly published? I am not so stupid as to click the "Login and Publish" button twice.
Anyhow, I just saw you have published your thoughts on the Richie Lie deal. Thanks

Menger Subscribes

Anonymous said...

Enjoyed a lot! »