22.3.06

白旗

做人嘅嘢,輸就要認,打就要企定。

  去年4月8日,我寫了篇〈拆招牌〉,指孔少林分析TOM在線(8282)投資價值高於TOM集團(2383),我不服氣,說明以一年為期,比拚誰勝誰負。當時我為求響朵,只好瞓身與他打對台,學黎署理話齋,有你冇我。

   未夠一年,我已經要投降。TOM在線一年來上升了超過七成;而TOM集團,幾乎原地踏步。換言之,我輸了幾條街。  TOM集團唔爭氣,除連累我要斟茶 認錯外,這CEO王Sir都要求去,專注發展個人業務。TOM在線都有個王Sir,但一比,高下立見。  如果照計數,TOM集團沒道理可以原地踏步。以 TOM在線昨天收市約兩元計,市值八十六億,TOM集團佔五十六億幾,即每股近一個四毫半。你估TOM集團昨天收市多少?個半。換言之,TOM集團其他業 務,只值五毫子。

 那些出版、戶外媒體、電視等等立立雜雜其他業務,賺六千幾萬,即每股一仙六左右。用五毫子市值計,三十一倍O,超貴。即是說,TOM集團現價仍然偏高,原地踏步,已經便宜了它,我本來要輸多一兩條街。

  同孔少林唱對台的,還有和黃(013)。今天公布完業績,就可以埋單計數。到目前為止,我相信未必輸實。

9 comments:

Anonymous said...

方兄, 好像計錯了, 2383 is holding around $1.45 of 8282, with its price of $1.5, those "other" business worths $0.05, not $0.5.

Under your analysis, those "other" business is trading 3.1 PE, is it worthy to invest?

Anonymous said...

Intentionlly wrong, maybe

愛人

Anonymous said...

Is it a bargain to buy 2383?

Anonymous said...

乍見文章開首, 還以為你向雲妮懺悔.....

希望只是與美蓮嗯嗯嗯, 而不是和菲力偉「斷背山」....

TOM集團到現在給我的印象, 只是一間買了很多好多東西回來的企業,就好像中信泰富一樣, 有好多業務,有不少資產,不過能吸引人去買它的股票的鮮明賣點(炒作理由)在那兒呢?

電視? 有另一個number 會更好喎...

出版業務? 邊份最賣得,有冇份像"信報"在香港巿場一樣的刊物?

體育事業?由佢幾年前買番來個價開始,便好難估.

雖說是以跨媒體企業自居,但總是予人樣樣做做,但暫時沒樣特別出色的感覺.

Anonymous said...

方生和黃盤數,等你教我地睇呀!

希望林生咪掛住賣信報先啦!

Anonymous said...

Borrow your space for my sincere remaks made for HKEJ:

i need to be honest with what i read on HKEJ and feel obliged to say something to ncourge those working hard to bring them to people at large.

Double Bravo to Hong Ching Tian on his comments made on page 16, on 23 March HKEJ. And Chan Der Long's article labelled "dont be a Qin citizen" made on 13 March. Both deserve high praise....

Their focus on common mindset of chinese and a serious soul searching is what we lack of.

Value of these article are more than any measurement of wealth... and i thank them for effort made in their writting...

Gillian
Singapore

Anonymous said...

Mr. Fong

Do you remember your piece of article on the IPO of TradeLink (536)? Why don't you mention it as well in this article?

Actually, I doubt that you intentionally wrote a piece of negative comment on 536 lest that its IPO was so hot that you couldn't get any shares.

Best
Jeff

Wing said...

如果TOM 真的收購SINA...似乎利好股價

Anonymous said...

方兄,一直拜讀您與孔少林的文章,感覺非常良好亦獲益良多,請繼續努力。

今天TOM公佈引入SPH為策略性股東,作價二億美元,估值一億零五百萬美金(按股本七千四百三十萬美元加三千零八十萬TOM股東貸款)。我想知道方兄您對此交易的看法。

乍看之下,入股價只按股本加股東貸款計算,是否代表OMG除了現金價值外,其他的都一文不值?