8.2.06

改用腳

國美(493)發行可換股債券,另加一批認股權證,集資淨額近十億港紙。市場反應正面,股價隨即升過CB的換股價。

  這單平常的融資交易,我有興趣的,反而是認購人。

  Warburg Pincus是private equity,平時做慣的買賣,是入股私人公司,然後善價而沽,或上市,或出售,賺其以倍計的回報。

  當然,買賣總有失手時,媒體世紀相信是其中一單「撻Q」之作。既然最後已經沽清,無謂再提。

  借錢給國美,又是怎樣的一單交易?近億三美金的債券,年息厘半,少得可憐,放入銀行都可以賺得更多。不過,到期贖回時國美要多付本金約近一成,但五年後的十厘回報,不會是private equity背後老細可以接受的投資項目。

  所以,白癡都知換股才是戲肉。六個月後Warburg Pincus已經可以開始換股,六個四銀錢,即刻換都已經有錢賺。但要股價上升到可以有以倍計的回報,要等多久?

  這就是我好奇所在。Private equity不去四處發掘有潛質的明日之星,反而借錢給上市公司,賺其可恥的保本回報,然後博取股票他朝升值,在市場沽售獲利。但上市股票能夠在五年內上升幾倍,百中無一,要賺取private equity慣見的豐厚利潤,機會甚微。

  換言之,看見Warburg Pincus肯投億幾美金落國美身上,證明中國遍地明日之星未來金礦的神話不再。當全世界的醒目錢都懂得找幾名海歸搭土炮在內地掘寶藏,差不多大部分金礦都有如煤礦一樣被人掏空,又或者寶藏有太多人爭奪,被人搶貴食之無味。但坐擁巨額金錢,沒有動作就要錢歸原主,唯有退而求其次,找一些有機會做大的上市公司,失去金礦只好找個鐵礦頂替。

  Private equity投錢,就得依private equity的做事方法。Warburg Pincus會派人監察公司進展是否一如大股東承諾,亦要公司定期交功課。Private equity手下的項目,是有金剛箍在頭殼頂,出不得「籠了」。但是否曉飛,private equity跟大部分投資者一樣,都是睇錯居多,戰績參差。


  以為有基金入股就必屬佳品,必須認清這基金以前多數是打籃球,甚少用腳踢波。

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

Need to borrow your space to say something to your neighbour, Mr Kong, on comments made on hk 992, Lenovo Group. article shown on 3rd Feb 2006.

it depends very much on the purpose of such an acquision set by hk 992 and whether Lenovo could develop this into its strength in the years to come.

if we look at the acquistion made by hk 669, they never paid cheap in any buyouts. why those acquistions considered successful?

computer is likely to become a commodity in pricing and hk 992 should know this, being in this industry for many years. this is to say if IBM is the jewel of the crown, then, keeping its shine is the magic that hk 992 need to do. This is not easy, but not impossible.

the worse sinario is it could end up with a lose-lose situation.

Clear focus brings out results so just keep our eyes open.

Gillian

Anonymous said...

方兄,借用這兒討論一下上星期曹sir突然提及的達力集團0029。這間公司近日股價波幅頗大。但成交又不多,文中曹sir對該公司頗為正面,但是這些細價股,曹sir卻提及,才是不明白之處?

希望各方網友,可否討論一番?

嘉嘉

Anonymous said...

kaka,
you noticed the extraordinary point but why not act ( buy immediately ) at around $2.05
Cho must have something from insiders.

Anonymous said...

我只是每日看方兄和曹sir,對股票不大搏的OL,最多都是買中壽和匯豐的。但很少見曹sir推這些不大有人提及的股票,所以很好奇上來問問。
想不到曹sir一提,近日像有升勢。

嘉嘉

Anonymous said...

kaka,
you had better chose Manulife or AIG, rather than China Life or HSBC, 945 records high likely again because of its newly released 2005Q4 result.

Wing said...

點解我次次都睇唔到最新的2個blog? 正常架?

Anonymous said...

29 表面睇係好嘢,完全唔需要 insider news。

(我完全冇持有29,亦唔係建議你買賣29,我只係剛剛經過,同睇左29啲數10分鐘左右。方兄,唔好意思。)