19.10.05

韋小寶

10月有如此多的新股上市,令到我枱頭的in-tray疊滿招股書。

  膽敢在建行(939)凍結的資金還未釋放就招股,是這間政府做大股東的貿易通(536)。領匯上市,全港矚目,被盧婆婆咬着不放,咬完後還用牙籤撩撩牙,相當有型。貿易通沒有太多資產,又不涉及市民日常生活,沒有議員會留意政府會否賤賣資產。

  放心,我這樣說並非暗指政府賤賣資產,保薦人毋須擔心盧婆婆重出江湖。

   政府在1990年開始入股,繼而在1994、1997年再入股兩次,前後入股總數約六千萬港元。這次出售一億七千幾萬股舊股,最少套現近二億元,手上餘 下的一億三千萬股,上市最少值約一億五千萬。總數三億多的回報,以分期入股六千萬計,IRR超過15%(未計股息)。從1990年開展一個為期十五年、 IRR 15%的項目,以純粹商業投資角度計,非常豆泥。不過,如果貿易通沒有什麽貴重資產,而股票又只可賣這個價錢,談不上賤賣,只可以怪當初容許入股的議員沒 有商業頭腦。

  如果我是議員,我都會樂見政府快 快把貿易通推上市,脫手套現。這間公司是我見過差不多唯一一間盈利呈現節節敗退的新上市公司,雖然稅後盈利預測是八千五百萬,高於去年,但仍然遜於 2002、2003年;還有,貿易通市場佔有率已經是接近壟斷,只有兩項服務留下幾個百分率的餅碎給科聯(046)啄食。明顯地,現有服務已經見頂,投資 者買的前景是一些未見蹤影的未來新板斧。TDEC的收費最貴,佔營業額近八成,但最受貿易協議改變影響,例如廢除紡織品配額,而且貿易通沒有TDEC的獨 家專營權。換言之,現在是大股東套現鬆人的最後機會。

  還有,股東做盡最均真的一步,把上市前可以派息的派盡,4月底可分派的儲備六千三百萬,上市前會派清,兼再派三千萬特別股息,相信是把5月打後的利潤一次過納走。亦即是說,貿易通上市籌集約五千萬,並非缺水,只不過讓政府離場。

  不過,令人費解是,政府並未將手上股票盡沽,還留下一億三千萬股。這批股票,就好似等待鞍鋼股權分置的結果一樣,成為投資者入市戒心。

   大股東藉上市沽貨套現,上市前派盡股息,兼且他朝有日大股東必定會再批股減持,這些全部都是令人痛恨揾小股東着數的上市手段。作為議員,一方面想政 府趁機沽售貿易通套現,幫補財赤;但另一方面,眼見小股東投資者面前是一個投資陷阱,議員究竟會企在哪一邊?夾在康熙與天地會之間,應該幫邊個?

10 comments:

losowong said...

6.8%至8%的股息? 咁大隻蛤蜊...哈哈

初時聽到都好似幾好, 不過一睇到佢張P&L,嘩!

算啦...

愛德華 said...

tradelink有市場佔有率, 為何看成見頂飽和?
同一道理, 港交所會否也可用同一看法?

Jeff said...

The columnist's article notwithstanding, I'm very optimistic about the performance of 536.

After all, you seldom have an attractive new issue covered by another giant all-the-hype IPO.

Best,
Jeff

losowong said...

as taught by investment gurus, i believe that little IPO worthing paying much attention.

i do really feel uneasy towards the P&L accounts of #536.

hi jeff, lets see if #536 under-perform within 6-12 months. last time i bet with my former colleague on IT (999), i think i will win very soon

losowong said...

dear edward

tradelink --> simply correct $$ for providing electronic 清關 service. in view of expiry of monopolictic position since 2004 and more free trade (no need 清關), its growth potential is a concern.

however, HKEx (388)'s monopolictic situation is legally protected. more IPO and more tradings = more income

see the difference?

TDEC said...

Anyone has the info about the ARPU?

Jeff said...

Hi Qu Bo

Agree with you on the 6-12 month performance of 536.

But I didn't plan to hold it for more than 1 month.

Best
Jeff

losowong said...

hi jeff

yes, selective punt on IPO does yield positive return. some statistics showed that.

on the other hand, long-term underperformance is a common feature of new stocks.

NTEEP (2633) is the example...ai....really disappointed about its management

Anonymous said...

I heard that there is two views between Tradelink shareholders before IPO:

1. The whole IPO process just for the exit of Government
2. The management just want more freedom and more face

Sony said...

清關和報關, 係兩樣野黎的