1.9.05

黑木頭

最近看見上市公司的中期業績報告,你會否覺得心驚膽跳?公司盈利可以動輒上升幾倍,可能你對盈利這觀念已經無甚信心。

   盈利錄得超級升幅的,大多是本地上市公司。原因一,可能是這類公司手持大量本地物業,因應市道向好,重估升值時立即為公司帶來巨額盈利。原因二,可能是 本地公司請得起人工高的財技高手,三幾吓功夫即時令業績變得漂漂亮亮。反而內地紅籌及國企公司勁蝕的為數不少,例如TCL(1070)、南方航空 (1055),狂賺的仍未見過。

  如果我手上這份中期報告的公司有高手坐鎮(可能已經有),將會是什麽景況?

  這公司是神華(1088)。

  神華做煤,油價大升的新聞與它無關,與煤沾上邊際的新聞全部是死人冧樓,所以煤對大部分人來說都不是好東西。神華上市時眾人稱貴,被指買神華不如買兗煤(1171),不過神華都算叫做曾升上九元多,入紙申請的投資者都有機會賺錢。

   神華上半年盈利大幅增長,沒有因為什麽會計準則的改變而特別受惠,賺錢是因為煤價上升。半年盈利上升八成,經營所得現金同步上升八成多,是一間真金白銀 結結實實做生意的公司。能源股,有現金在手,兼且是中國最大,極有潛力模仿中海油(883)、中石油(857),開始放眼世界,找尋收購壯大的目標。

  神華負債高,自己誠實地向股東披露資本負債比率是107%,這毫不顧左右而言他的態度抵讚。雖然負債六百多億元人民幣,但以半年賺百五億現金的速度,兼且上市又籌得二百億港紙,這負債不成問題,問題是神華管理層是否懂得如何運用現金兼夾上市地位,為股東賺取最大利益。

  我看這才是最考工夫,亦考投資者眼光。神華P/E十五倍,兗煤九倍,單看這些硬數字不足以定勝負。決定應否投資神華,要看管理層能否轉型,從單純的經營煤炭生意,變成身兼運用錢財替股東取利的現代管理層。

6 comments:

james said...

1088 mid-year result is 78b,not 150b,
1133,1072 mid-year result up 5-6 times

Jeffrey Ip said...

I have a question and I hope you can share your opinion with me. Why the stock price of 857 can goes up though the production cost of a company is rising. Since the more oil it sold, more losses it will suffer. And why so many people would like to buy this stock? Are there any factors that I have missed in this logic?

Anonymous said...

No. You are taking about refining companies. 857 is engaged in exploration business, the cost is rather fixed while the product price (crude oil) is rising. So the margin will expand, not narrow.

Anonymous said...

cnooc and petro china are upstream oil companies that explore crude oil.
386 sinopec is refining company - downstream company that buys crude oil from upstream oil explorer like petro china and cnooc, and refine it into petroleum or gas to be sold in the market.
so cnooc and petro china benefit from crude oil price hike, but sinopec 386 suffer because petroleum & gas price in china is
regulated and much lower than international leve.

Anonymous said...

and sinopec's price went up mostly on 1) RMB revaluation - cost in US$ lowered, income in rmb increased, and net profit reported in HK$ also increased!
2) hope on price increase in china domestic gas and petro price.
3) laggard among the 3 oil plays
but my question is - will sinopec benefit from increase in competition by end 2006 in china gasoline market? market believes china must deregulate the price by then as foreign players will join accding to WTO. BUt then sinopec will loose its market share..... so what's the prospect of sinopec?

Terry Ho said...

似乎習慣上黑木頭是指炭,「能燃燒的石頭」方是指煤。