21.7.05

鋒芒露

據報,中海油(883)與海爾的收購計劃,恐怕將分別鎩羽而歸。

  Unocal董事局支持雪佛龍的加碼方案,四成現金六成股票的出價,相等於Unocal每股值六十三美元;股東同時可選擇要六十九美元全現金,又或者一點○三股雪佛龍全股票。中海油的六十七美元出價,即時給比下去。

  而海爾收購Maytag,因惠而浦加入戰圈令情況變得複雜,海爾最後決定退出。

  這些走出去的交易,留待孔少林慢慢分析,但觀乎這兩宗交易,以至早前聯想(992)收購IBM個人電腦業務的交易,我相信中國企業要實行走出去之前,宜與中國政府一齊做好公關工作,否則將來的走出去交易,一樣會遇到相同問題。

  海爾的交易還叫做少阻力,但聯想及中海油一開口要收購美國企業,即時被幻化為魔鬼形象,是要對美國國家安全產生威脅的動作。原因除了是收購對象是戰略行業包括電腦技術及石油供應外,更重要是美國不會讓中國輕易踩入自己地頭,反過來影響自己的經濟命脈。

  當然,以經濟侵略而言,美國入侵中國比中國入侵美國規模大百倍,但作為這方面的第一把交椅,又豈會讓侵略對象反咬自己?除非將來中國收購的是美國人自己都唾棄的垃圾,否則每一次都會有國會議員出來喊停。

   中國政府要帶頭做什麽公關工作?要帶領中國企業一齊扮傻,扮成是有錢單純的二世祖,手持一大疊鈔票,財大氣粗要威,準備收購鬼佬公司光宗耀祖。此舉可以 減低對手的戒心,亦可以吸引投資銀行埋身賺錢。由投資銀行那班鬼佬擺平反對勢力,勝過中國企業走去請人lobby。這是以夷制夷的最佳典範。

   無錯,這是對政府及企業政治技巧的要求。收購美國大企業是政治多於價錢,其他人都有類似評論。從來政治經濟、政策財經都是兩位一體,你中有我。以前一些 令人莫名其妙的走去出個案,可以從好的方面演繹成作為以後其他收購的部署。但中海油太快、太心急收購戰略企業,令以前扮傻的苦心前功盡廢。

17 comments:

w8w said...

扮傻無用,鬼子佬唔係蠢,同意用你急我唔急態度,由洋顧問同目標公司慢慢磨。

股蟻 said...

講乜都冇用啦,各方高人。請各位面對現實:
而家美國視中國為威脅,無論中國出錢出計出術出...乜都好,美國都會極力遏止中國發展,更莫講話收購咁敏感o既能源公司。當年契仔兼盟友日本收購美國公司同物業,美國佬都咬咬聲啦,何況而家係共產中國!

Anonymous said...

意識形態的不同,你買咩,結果都一樣,何況你買樣人家的寶物(政客眼中)。

Tony said...

這次中海油收購 Unocal ,除非項莊舞劍,另有所圖,否則確如方兄所言,太「猴擒」了。

主其事的中國執行官員,無論從那一個角度出發觀察,都應把收購事件最終會遇到美國政府政治干預,作為可能性考慮。

中國政府搞公關?
哎...衹要外交政策一天仍以統戰思維領導,苦頭仍要吃足。 「走出去」要多付出的溢價,不知道要多出口幾多個億的成衣才能賺回。

Anonymous said...

用美國佬印個d公仔紙買美國佬d實質資產係件好事~但希望佢地唔好亂咁買!要物有所值先得~唔好好像日本仔咁死法~

Anonymous said...

中海油收購 Unocal, 是除笨有精的收購.不過扮傻就有用?? 我諗好難,除非石油價格一路下跌和石油不再有短缺的預期,唔係想班鬼佬唔嘈,好難la

夏語冰 said...

遏制「鋒芒露」, 這種政治智慧, 查中國歷史, 古已有之。

看看春秋時代的范蠡, 盛唐的郭子儀, 盛清的年羹堯, 皆是此中的高手嘛!

這又可是「易經」中的: 潛龍勿用呢?

Anonymous said...

最近解放軍嗰位仁兄唔慌唔「鋒芒露」咯。o係正哩個時候講啲咁震攝o既戰略,擺明係別有用心,真係唔想俾人地國會ban down中海油單收購都唔得啦。
不過,解放軍o既言論絶對唔係個人意見,而係代表國內(特別係軍方)保守勢力,究竟軍委主席胡錦濤點樣擺平佢地,對於中國今後的經濟發展方向何去何從,真係耐人尋味。留意佢9月訪美搞啲乜。

eric said...

我就認為今次解放軍係用潛台詞警告日本:
咪以為有美國撐腰就得寸進尺,欺人太甚;有咩事起上o黎美國都自身難保呀,醒定啲啦你,小日本。

Jeff said...

Hi all,

Yau Lee Holdings (406) today released annual result for the year ended on Mar 31st 2005. (http://www.hkex.com.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/20050721/LTN20050721084.HTM). EPS 10.68cents, compared with previous year, down 74% from 40.87cents. Share price down by 3% today.

I was really puzzled, since, as far as I remember, 2004 is a losing year for Yau Lee. I went to HKEx website and search for last year's annual report (http://www.hkex.com.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/20040730/LTN20040730243.htm). I am right.

I bought Yau Lee because of its property investment in Causeway Bay, which I believe has appreciated greatly and will be generating rental income for the company. I initially expected that Yau Lee's P/L will be substantially improved by the rental income and the possible revaluation of the porperty investment in Causeway Bay.

I just do not understand why 2004 becomes profitable for Yau Lee and now it looks as if Yau Lee, compared with 2004, has a much worse result for 2005. Could it be that the management puts the revaluation income back into 2004 and restates the 2004 result? Why does it do that? To make 2005 look a lot worse and pave the way for a soaring result for 2006?

The annual report has yet to be published, so there's not much information about this year's result.

Could anybody tell me what is going on? Or, could the author of this column make an analysis about this after the annual report is released.

Best,
Jeff

Anonymous said...

方兄& 孔生
兩位無理由不講財經界大事 - 人民幣升值

孟武當 said...

代孔生筆:
咁鬼夜重有人揾,呢个 blog 又唔係我嘅,真喺煩。
寫又冇面,唔寫又話我 lost touch。
好彩唔係阿 Mary 留言,好彩,好彩。

Anonymous said...

Dont underestimate your counterparties !!!

Be easy, if there is no marriage take place.. it takes time for Haier to build its own distribution channel in any foreign market. Going through the process might be hard, but it is definietely positive for its growth in future..no effort will be wasted!!!

taking instance noodle may not be a good solution at all.. Gillian

Anonymous said...

Message to Jeff on HK406.

1. call your broker to answer all your questions.

2. look into the reasons on why the company make profit in 04 and why it run into losses in 05.

3. the whys you get may not be a real reasons, so pls go through their past results, say 3 to 5 yrs..

4. after going through all this, you should understand a bit about the company. then, compare it with the industial leader to find out formula for success in this line...

5. look into the process, instead of results...look beyond the figures and get to know why and how they do it...

Jeff said...

To Anonymous,

The announcement appeared on Page 6 of today's HKEJ answered some of my questions. In the footnotes #1, it said it has adopted Rule 40, which allows booking change in fair value of property investment into P/L. This increases Net Income by 45mio for 2005 and 180mio for 2004. That's why 2004, after restatement, becomes profitable.

In other words, excluding the change in fair value, Yau Lee's Net Income is around ZERO for both 2004 and 2005. This is way too disappointing, not least because the rental business is also contributing nothing (after dudecting change in fair value).

Anyway, thanks for your advise.

Best,
Jeff

Anonymous said...

buy low sell high ma, no point to buy when oil price is at the peak

also M&A target is ldeally operation in bad shape, buy-lo again

A Chan said...

Reply to Jeff:

When you get a chance to deal with Yau Lee (like myself), you should know how come their P&L would remain constant no matter what kind of market environment they're dealing with..... check out the admin. expenses / P&L of its associated companies / director renumeration... you should get a bit insight what kind of people you are dealing with!