14.9.05

落注

彩票股,可能要留意一下。

  有消息指,高盛會收購美國上市、提供電子彩票賭博技術的GTECH,最近其股價已由上星期約三十美元,跳升至現在接近三十五美元。

  GTECH只不過是一間專攻博彩行業的科技公司,1992年以拆股後計四美元多上市,十三年上升七倍幾。股價真正起步其實是2002年開始,頭十年都是在十美元樓下浮浮沉沉。

  GTECH過去三年每年都是賺一億幾美元,穩穩陣陣。這類博彩科技公司,並非Skype那種稀有新貴,亦不是什麽新興的明日之星,上市已十多年,何解會被高盛看中?

  會否是人皆垂涎的中國市場作崇?

  GTECH現在為北京福利彩票發行中心提供技術,高盛是否知道中國這片尚未開發的彩票福地會大有作為,所以立刻落注?

   德銀最近有份報告,分析中國彩票市場。實際上這份並非投資報告,而是一份中國彩票市場的盡職審查報告。以人均彩票銷售計算,中國是四美元,香港是近一百 二十,美國是一百六十。但計算與人均GDP的比例,美國是0.43%,中國已經是0.28%。按照這計算,只要將來玩法種類與銷售渠道增加,夾着人均 GDP上升之勢,彩票市場理論上大有可為。

   在 中國做生意,最緊要識人,否則你曉飛都無用。彩票是超級監管行業,入行門檻極高,入場證本身已經有價。如今高盛傳出有意收購GTECH,可能表示有人對入 場證有興趣。幾間本地變身的彩票股,除看通(1059)外,皆無甚投資價值,缺乏往績可尋是也。但如果有人對入場證問價,倒可能有投機價值。買股票唯一目 的是賺錢,並非為學術研究計算一大堆財務數字。年輕人的投資組合,可以負擔部分隨時變廢紙的高價垃圾,有膽識悉隨尊便,我只負責提供市場出現但你可能漏眼 的消息。

  提供博彩技術是正行生意,但買賣博彩技術的股票則可以是偏門的賭博行為。

*    *    *

  昨天的文章,李卓人議員有以下回應。我都要順帶回應一下,我並非是鼓勵迪士尼員工組織工會。

方兄︰

  拜讀 閣下今日信報「開幕日」的文章。多謝閣下能以「墮入」的書寫方式描述迪士尼員工的感受,更多謝你鼓勵員工搞工會。

  我開幕日沒有入去派傳單,主要是因為我們組織工會的部署是在下週才派傳單。日前,我們派了傳單後,得到不少員工透過電郵及傳真向我們表達意見。我們計劃整理了員工的投訴及不滿後,再向員工派發新的單張並約見迪士尼香港總裁Robinson 爭取改善。

  所以,我請你放心,我們定必有始有終地搞到底。

  請保持聯絡,多交流意見。

  謝謝!

李卓人 敬上

2005年9月13日 

15 comments:

Anonymous said...

李卓人議員亦為貴專欄讀者. 方兄妙筆, 名聲千里, 舉足輕重.

至於香江迪士尼久為世人所談, 網上亦不乏香江迪士尼之事, 小弟摘錄如下, 以供參考:

http://dannysland.blogspot.com/2005_07_24_dannysland_archive.html

http://secretlifeofshoes.blogspot.com/2005/08/wild-dogs-taking-over-hong-kong-disney.html

http://simonworld.mu.nu/

http://tekiedit.blogspot.com/

thomas

Letters from China said...

Expansion of Thomas's list:

http://voyage.typepad.com/china/2005/09/101_reasons_to_.html

Tony said...

在迪士尼這個項目上,港方和喜歡在其背後指點的中方官員,在策略上至少犯了以下三點錯誤:

1.
迪士尼主題公園,是一件過時的商品。
這件商品的原來目標客户,是五、六十年代英語世界裏浸淫在迪士尼卡通人物中長大的青少年。 讓他們長大有了獨立經濟能力後,能在樂園重温孩時的美夢。 亦祇有這羣「老天真」,才可能是樂園的忠實粉絲,可以不計成本辛勞,重複地到訪樂園而感到物有所值。 而這個「夢工程」亦替廸士尼集團在卡通和影片增長不繼後,提供了新的營利來源。
問題是自六十年代中越戰時代長大的一群,無論 hippie、psychedelic、或 punk,對迪士尼所代表的文化,根本嗤之以鼻。 這是形成美國迪士尼樂園在八十年代增長不繼,進場人數不斷下滑的主要原因。 窮則變,集團兵分兩路,一方面不斷在電影業謀出路,可惜成就不足以支撑其商業王國。 另一方面,則希望憑「三斤釘」,找老襯在美國以外投資樂園。 而其殺手鐗一向是運用政治影響力,以謀取集團得到對方政府的祝福,再而簽訂一份至少在表面上利益一面倒向集團的合作協議,以刺激其美市股價。 無論日本、法國的迪士尼樂園,細心審視,都可以看到城下之盟的影子。
香港要做這個老襯,本來即使豬油蒙心自願獻身亦末必能獲迪士尼青睞。 但如中央政府要交下此任務,董政府有這個胆推卻這「恩賜」嗎?

2.
談判時候太輕率。
本來嘛,此任務交下,那談的時候應做好準備。 除了己方 (包括中港) 內部協調好一致的談判策略外,更要做好對對方的強弱點分析的功夫。 而不可缺的,是一隊集合法律、財務、Corporate Management 等專才的談判團隊。
遺憾的是,以上所提的,要不是做得不足,或更付之厥如。
先來一個上海加入競爭,示人以弱。 再而分析數據粗疏,看起來連與一間中小型上市公司在收購前所做的分析工作都比不上。 談判隊伍嘛,這個專業....恕在下寡聞,不知道「假唐人」盧維思有何專才。
這「喪權辱港」今天說來沉重。 但該怪誰呢?

3.
經營前景成疑。
IQT 說希望本港迪士尼在經營成熟後到訪者可年達一千萬人次。 按一下計算機那代表三佰六十五天每天平均入場 27,397。 IQT 之名實至名歸。
缺少了足夠數目的一群「老天真」尋夢者,樂園可以就祇靠那些自遊行支撑經營嗎? 大陸遊客抱着看景點的心入場,由於沒有尋夢這心理滿足,願付目前票價的會有多少? 光靠好奇心吸引,來一次、頂多兩次夠了吧? 那「十三億人每人一雙鞋」」的迷思衹應能迷倒老外。 中港官員把話說上九十九遍後,是否樂園就能變得財源廣進,至少可以自給自足不讓吾等納稅人操心這是我們頸上的攞命索呢?

愛看"24"劇集多於disney said...

不大同意迪士尼樂園己out,只以40-60歲的老fans為主客群,我己50,但見園內長龍處處便怕,反而,我的子女,外甥,侄子,己去了一次,現都說希望個個月玩一次迪士尼加一次海洋公園便妙哉.始終,玩park多童真,也是年男女愛戀的踏腳梯,收益應年賺多於一年的.???

成衣商 said...

看佐丹奴米奇衫的瘋狂勁銷,便知迪士尼和Ocean park 都應可在未來十年有錢賺的,Tony兄過慮了,我信政府有分紅的chance多於再夾part.

三類人 said...

似乎,有些人喜愛投資一個項目去發財,如西九,迪士尼,蘭桂坊.
似乎,有些人喜愛反投資,如獵奇,綠色,真共黨.
似乎,有些人有什麼便玩一大餐,理佢disney,ocean park,嘉年華,工展,搶包山,輪七月米,或一年N次的煙花.
你是那一些呢?
我媽打說每個仔女同佢去一種便孝順了.

losowong said...

the share price of 2038 surged 3.846% to $8.10 now (11:32am) -- historical high!

oh...its IPO price only $3.88!

well, your picks -- 754 & 915 -- are quite good also

PP said...

disney.

1. i disagree. a lot of young people have the desire to go to disney. (i am pretty young. ^^!)
having a disneyland in hk just improve the buzz of hk.
i know of families that are going to disneyworld every single year in united states.
as the disposable income for people increase, people will pay for worthwhile entertainment.

however, in the long run, the local auidence will decline as the demographics of younger people are fewer. (attendence data from tokyo can be used as a clue.)

2. agree.

3. disagree. not every visitors to hk will go to disneyland.
i have been to LA many times, yet i went to disneyland twice. :p


HK goverment doesn't view (and shouldn't view) disneyland as an investment by itself (as the the return on captial from the project may not be justified for the investment), but rather view as an infrastructure investment that yields intangible benefits.
just my 2 cents.

Tony said...

pp:

Presume you've been responding to my earlier post about Disney.

The only difference between Disneyland (or Disney World) and the other theme parks are the cast characters, i.e. Mickey, Snow-white, etc., that Disney group owns. Based on these characters built the atmosphere and surroundings in the park. It's the sole thing Disneyland used to differentiate. Compare with the kids brought up with the cartoons of legendary Disney characters, the kids born lately donot have anymore the same attachment like their parents or grannies.
That's what I mean Disneyland is obsolete. While seeing the visit rate to Disneyland in the states keeps slope down, I couldn't find a better theory than, from a perspective of product life cycle, that the lengendary Disney attraction is, or closing to being, obsolete.
> "A lot of young people have the desire to go to Disney"
Yes. But they have the desire to go to any theme park, not just Disney.
Kids today still feel happy to go to Disney with their parents. But they feel happy to go to anywhere 'with their parents', the love of being joyful 'with their parents'.
Bing Crosby is one of my favorite singers. My kids sometimes told me they love Crosby's songs, only when they're listening with me. Crosby is certainly a lengend I'll forever love. But sadly, I have to say he's obsolete, commercially speaking.
For the board of Dieney group, the most optimized divesting strategy is try to find some economically developing cultural colony to pay for the remain value, before it's too late. So China can provide the myth....

> "Not all the visitors go to Disney"
Certainly not.
So how do you think HK Disney could keep its account book balanced. Not to rely solely on the 7 miilion residents, I wonder.

> "HK government doesn't view Disney as an investment by itself, but rather an infrastructure investment that yields intangible benefit"
Of what intangible benefit?
A lot of the white elephants on this earth are built in the name of 'intangibe benefit', or even 'national benefit'. Disneyland sounds new.
Are you just trying to be humorous?

Anonymous said...

tony:

your mind is full of hatred and cynicism and understandably your life is miserable

Anonymous said...

>李卓人議員亦為貴專欄讀者. 方兄妙筆, 名>聲千里, 舉足輕重.
Yeah.

"談判時候太輕率。
本來嘛,此任務交下,那談的時候應做好準備。 除了己方 (包括中港) 內部協調好一致的談判策略"

我最記得既就係當年香港同迪士尼傾緊既時候,上海突然話佢對迪士尼都有興趣..."內部協調好"係無可能既...What the...

"經營前景成疑"既唔止迪士尼,重有香港本身都係呀...唔搞迪士尼,咁搞乜好﹖XX港﹖o的頭銜用得七七八八啦...

Anonymous said...

Disney has become the public enemy of the Democratic gangsters, too expensive, too crowded, insufficient visitors, under-paid over-worked staff, blah blah blah

welcome to the masturbation party, democratic gangsters

Anonymous said...

Disney is to bring joy to the people, if everybody is happy, who bother to care the opposition party? no wonder democratic gangsters hate it

Anonymous said...

We are all learning, so we shall try not to be personal in any remarks made...everyone is entitle to express his/her views...

i could rather be sarcastic in investment picks, then feeling sorri later.....

Gillian

Gillian

Anonymous said...

Well said, Gillian.

'It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it.'
- ARISTOTLE